The Future of Coal in a Changing Energy Market
Former U.S. President Joe Biden is facing a worsening health situation after his son Hunter Biden said the cancer has spread to his bones and described the disease as "very painful" and "very debilitating."
Coal was supposed to be fading, yet 2026 is shaping up as another record year. Global demand rose by 0.3% in 2025 to 8.84 billion tonnes,narrowlybeating the previous record, and the IEA now forecasts growth of 1.2% in 2026 to 8.94 billion tonnes. That reverses its earlier expectation of a small decline. (IEA)
The cause is mainly short term. The IEA says the change mainly reflects the Middle East crisis and an unusually strong El Niño, as higher gas prices make coal more attractive for power generation in places with spare coal capacity. (Oilprice.com) (Green Building Africa)
Does this mean coal is back for good?
Probably not. If LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover and gas prices settle below 2026 levels, global coal demand is forecast to fall by 0.4% to 8.91 billion tonnes. In the longer run, the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2025 sees coal demand peaking around 2030 and then falling steadily in all of its scenarios. (Industrial Info Resources) (Mysteel)
Who decides where coal goes next?
The two giants still decide the outcome. China's coal demand is expected to rise 1% in 2026 to 5 billion tonnes, while India's is expected to grow 4.2% to 1,353 million tonnes. Elsewhere the picture differs, since US coal use is projected to fall about 7% in 2026 after a 9.5% surge last year, and the European Union's demand continues its structural decline. (IEA) (Industrial Info Resources)
IEA chief Fatih Birol has maintained that the world's fossil fuel consumption will peak before 2030 and fall into permanent decline as climate policies take effect. The record-setting present and the declining future can both be true, because coal tends to rise when gas is scarce and expensive, then lose ground once alternatives become cheaper and more secure. (Carbon Brief)
For readers, the key to watch is not coal itself but the gas and LNG market, because coal demand in 2027 will depend heavily on whether LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover. (Green Building Africa)
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